International tourism kept expanding in early 2026, but the pace of growth is cooling as geopolitical tension and rising travel costs weigh on the industry heading into peak season, according to new data from UN Tourism.
Arrivals Reach 307 Million, But March Growth Nearly Stalls.
Some 307 million tourists traveled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about 6 million more than the same period last year, marking 2% year-on-year growth. The quarter started strong, with January and February posting cumulative growth of 2.5%. That momentum broke in March, when growth slowed to just 0.4% as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted flight routes and dampened traveler confidence.
UN Tourism now expects the conflict to shave 1 to 2 percentage points off its original 2026 forecast of 3% to 4% global growth, depending on how long the crisis lasts. Rising oil prices and jet fuel shortages in some markets are also pushing up airfares and cutting flight capacity well beyond the region itself.
Middle East Arrivals Drop 14%, Reshaping Travel Patterns
Arrivals to the Middle East fell 14% in the first quarter, the sharpest regional decline in the report. Among tourism professionals surveyed, 61% said the conflict is reducing inbound travel to their own destinations, while 17% reported an increase as travelers redirected trips elsewhere. Around 14% saw a rise in domestic tourism, as some travelers swapped international trips for trips closer to home.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the conflict is disrupting travel patterns far beyond the region itself, pointing to rising inflation in transport and accommodation costs as a growing pressure point for travelers, businesses, and destinations alike.
Europe, APAC, and Africa Post Steady Gains
Europe, still the world’s largest destination region, welcomed more than 130 million international tourists in the quarter, up 4%, extending 2025’s strong 5% growth. Central Eastern Europe led the continent with 6% growth, while Southern Mediterranean and Northern Europe both grew 4%.
Africa also grew 4% overall. North Africa matched that pace for the quarter but posted an 18% jump in March alone, while Sub-Saharan Africa grew 4% as well.
Asia and the Pacific grew a more modest 3%, held back by mixed results across destinations. Oceania led the region with 9% growth and North-East Asia grew 5%, but overall Asian arrivals remain 11% below pre-pandemic levels, at 89% of where they stood in the first quarter of 2019.
Cautious Optimism for the Summer Season
UN Tourism’s Confidence Index, based on responses from 300 tourism professionals worldwide, scored 105 for the May–August 2026 period, down from 117 in January–April. A reading of 100 signals no change from the prior year.
Roughly 39% of experts expect performance to be better or much better this summer, 28% expect similar results, and 31% expect performance to be worse or much worse, reflecting a travel industry still growing, but bracing for a bumpier ride ahead.
Source: UN Tourism, World Tourism Barometer, updated April 2026; global tourism confidence survey results released July 2026.
